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The EPA on Thursday proposed a new phase of stricter emission standards for the 2027 through 2032 model years that would trigger a massive increase in electric vehicle sales—but didn’t technically mandate it.
The proposed standard aims for fleet average emissions of 82 grams of CO2 per mile by the 2032 model year, a 56% reduction in emissions from the existing standard in effect through the 2026 model year. Meeting this target will require up to 67% of EV sales by model year 2032, EPA project.
EV sales figures are not a mandate, as California is in place for 2035, but rather the most likely path to meet the stricter emission targets. Manufacturers can still produce new vehicles with internal combustion engines, and are working to meet stricter standards by increasing their efficiency, according to the EPA. That means a scenario in which the automaker sells the most EVs in the 2032 model year is not set.
The EPA also doesn’t seem ready to incentivize more efficient EVs, treating all vehicles with zero “exhaust” emissions the same.
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That scenario represents a very steep increase from what the Biden administration has been doing during the 2026 model year. The recently announced EPA rules aim for just 8% of EV sales by then, still more than 2022, when EVs generate 5, 8% of US new car sales. In terms of anticipated real-world outcomes, the proposed 2027-2032 rule is also more ambitious than President Biden’s 2021 executive order calling for 50% EV sales by 2030.
According to the EPA, the proposed standard would avoid 7.3 billion tons of CO2 by 2055 through a cleaner fleet—the equivalent of eliminating emissions over four years from the entire US transportation sector. That would save lives through lower levels of particulate matter that can cause various health problems and premature death.
However, the target brings federal emission standards closer to those of California. The state currently wants to end sales of most internal combustion vehicles by 2035, leaving room for plug-in hybrids that meet certain targets for emissions and electric range.
The proposal also includes new emission standards for medium-duty commercial vehicles projected to account for up to 46% of EV sales in the 2032 model year. by 2026. Proposed standards for heavy-duty trucks could also lead to 35% of new short-haul tractors and 25% of new long-haul tractors being electric by the 2032 model year.
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The EPA claims this proposal will avoid nearly 10 billion tons of CO2 emissions, equivalent to more than twice the total US CO2 emissions by 2022. It will also save the average consumer $12,000 in cost of ownership over the life of a car, the agency claims.
However, the cost argument may not win over consumers. A poll published this week by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, and the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute (EPIC) found that most Americans are not ready to buy an EV, partly because consumers are less likely to consider buying one. the price of a new vehicle outweighs the savings in fuel and maintenance. And while most respondents support EV incentives like tax credits, fewer emission standards support driving more EV sales.
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The proposed standard could become an issue in the 2024 Presidential election and beyond. Even if Biden is re-elected, this next phase of emission rules will run past the end of his second term. A future administration could seek to overturn it, as it did during the Trump administration with the proposed rules under President Obama—although it could take until March 2020 to pass a lower gas mileage target that goes into effect in 2021.
The response of automakers over the next few years will be another thing to watch. Recently seven automakers backed California in a challenge to its emissions authority, which allowed the state to enforce a ban on sales of natural gas cars by 2035. But General Motors, Toyota, and Stellantis predecessor Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) joined the Trump administration to against that authority.
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