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A new survey of automakers and Tier 1 suppliers conducted by Ducker Carlisle concludes that as electric vehicles continue to enter the mass market, demand for aluminum will grow through the end of the decade. Report, “2023 North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content and Outlook,” released today by the Aluminum Association indicates that demand for more sustainable transportation will help drive an increase in market share for aluminum content by nearly 100 net pounds per vehicle (PPV) from 2020 to 2030.
“Consumers want cars and trucks that are greener, more electric and loaded with more technology, and automakers are responding with innovations, all made possible by high-strength, low-weight and infinitely recyclable aluminum,” said Mike. Keown, chairman of the Aluminum Transport Group and CEO of Commonwealth Rolled Products. “The aluminum industry is committed to ensuring consumers experience the performance and environmental benefits of aluminum as more vehicles are designed with the metal in the coming years. Greater collaboration with automakers will deliver on this vision, set out by the aluminum industry in its 10-year roadmap. And as mega-casting and closed-loop recycling continue, aluminum manufacturers remain important partners in helping automakers achieve their aggressive carbon neutral targets.”
The report, reflecting data collected over an 8-month period through interviews with leading automakers, Tier 1 suppliers and aluminum manufacturing companies, identified five key market themes:
- The proliferation of BEVs will dramatically change the NA light vehicle landscape. BEV production share has almost doubled from slightly under 3% in 2020 to around 6% in 2022. By 2030, BEVs, which are more aluminum-intensive on average, are expected to exceed 36% production share.
- The trend is towards larger vehicles that have more aluminum content per vehicle. Consumer affinity for larger vehicles has continued, helping to drive increased aluminum growth. By 2022, light trucks outnumber cars four to one and contain more than 30% more aluminum than cars.
- Aggressive CO2 and Miles Per Gallon (MPG) regulatory targets are helping to drive EV adoption and aluminum growth. Recent federal regulations ushering in more stringent CO2 and MPG targets expected for 2027 to 2030 boosted EV adoption and helped fuel aluminum’s further growth.
- The aluminum content per vehicle continues to grow relentlessly. Net gains of 56 pounds per vehicle are expected between 2020 and 2025 with aluminum growing by nearly 100 net PPV between 2020 and 2030 to 550 PPV, a 233% increase over 1990, when aluminum contributed just 165 PPV.
- Short-term aluminum growth was led by extrusion and sheeting. Extrusions are showing significant growth in body-in-white (BIW) and accident management systems (CMS) earning 47 pounds per vehicle from 2020 to 2030, the fastest growing product forms, while auto body sheets (ABS) and sheets for system thermal management will increase by 41 PPV from 2020 to 2030. Castings remain the largest form of aluminum product, but growth is limited as powertrain and transmission components are replaced by e-drives, battery housings, high-voltage devices, etc.
“Electrification positively affects the aluminum content and compensates for the transition away from powertrain and transmission components, which are primarily aluminum,” said Abey Abraham, principal of automotive and materials at Ducker Carlisle. “As electrified powertrains create significant growth opportunities for aluminum, stricter fuel economy standards also continue to drive mass reductions in ICE vehicles.”
Additional findings from the triannual”North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content and Outlook” including:
- Key components for aluminum growth in electric vehicles between 2022 and 2030 include battery housings, e-motors and drives, door frames and rockers.
- By 2030, battery-powered light trucks are expected to have an average aluminum content of 644 pounds.
- SUVs and pickups will account for nearly 85% of the BEV market by 2030.
The growing automotive aluminum sector remains vital to the nation’s manufacturing base and the healthy US economy. The aluminum industry has invested or committed more than $7 billion to ensure increased automotive capacity in the US since 2013, and the industry is poised to continue such investments in domestic manufacturing jobs as demand continues to grow.
To view the study, visit DriveAluminum.org/ducker2023
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